At the end of every country test we ask one optional question: which party do you feel closest to? Separately, the test works out which party your answers actually sit nearest to. Of the 17,989 people who answered that question for a party the test scores, 33% landed closest to a different party from the one they named.
That sounds like a verdict on voters, and it mostly isn't. Party identity is built from far more than policy: family habit, a leader you trust, a local candidate, a sense of who a party is for, and the plain arithmetic of which party can actually win where you live. The test only measures one of those things, agreement on policy. What the gap shows is how often those other reasons outweigh it.
Measured against chance
The raw match rate is not a fair way to compare countries, because matching is harder when there are more parties to choose from. A test with 5 parties gives a random answer a one in 5 chance of landing on yours. So the chart below shows each country's match rate against the rate you would get by picking a party at random.
Show the data
| Country | People | Matched own party | Parties scored | Chance | Times chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan | 9,803 | 86.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 2.6× |
| Finland | 1,870 | 51.8% | 8 | 12.5% | 4.1× |
| United States | 2,023 | 49.8% | 5 | 20.0% | 2.5× |
| Germany | 367 | 43.6% | 8 | 12.5% | 3.5× |
| Canada | 412 | 43.4% | 6 | 16.7% | 2.6× |
| Spain | 457 | 42.9% | 6 | 16.7% | 2.6× |
| Australia | 569 | 38.5% | 5 | 20.0% | 1.9× |
| United Kingdom | 1,020 | 36.6% | 7 | 14.3% | 2.6× |
| Italy | 355 | 34.1% | 7 | 14.3% | 2.4× |
| New Zealand | 173 | 33.5% | 7 | 14.3% | 2.3× |
| Austria | 237 | 32.5% | 8 | 12.5% | 2.6× |
Every country clears the chance line comfortably, which is the first thing worth saying: people are not guessing. Finland stands out at 4.1 times chance. Australia is lowest at 1.9 times. Finland is the largest group in our data by some distance, which is why the key result below is also checked without it.
Where people land instead
Splitting by the party people named shows that the gap is not spread evenly. Some groups answer almost exactly like their party. Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) identifiers in Taiwan matched their party 97% of the time. At the other end, only 12% of people who named Green Party in New Zealand matched it.
Show the data
| Party named | Country | People | Matched it | Most common alternative | Share on alternative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) | Taiwan | 6,901 | 97% | Taiwan People's Party (TPP) | 3% |
| Taiwan People's Party (TPP) | Taiwan | 1,610 | 94% | Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) | 4% |
| Finns Party | Finland | 700 | 84% | Christian Democrats | 8% |
| Republican | United States | 479 | 81% | Independent | 10% |
| AfD | Germany | 56 | 80% | BSW | 5% |
| Reform UK | United Kingdom | 110 | 68% | Restore Britain | 11% |
| Democrat | United States | 624 | 68% | Green | 18% |
| PP | Spain | 95 | 61% | Independent | 15% |
| Liberal | Canada | 128 | 57% | NDP | 15% |
| Social Democrats | Finland | 204 | 56% | Green League | 19% |
| NDP | Canada | 103 | 50% | Liberal | 29% |
| Greens | Germany | 58 | 48% | Independent | 16% |
| Left Party | Germany | 69 | 46% | SPD | 26% |
| PSOE | Spain | 75 | 44% | Sumar | 25% |
| Sumar | Spain | 53 | 42% | PSOE | 36% |
| Vox | Spain | 141 | 41% | PP | 50% |
| Conservative | United Kingdom | 145 | 39% | Reform UK | 35% |
| Greens | Australia | 173 | 39% | Teal Independents | 43% |
| Liberal Democrats | United Kingdom | 141 | 39% | Labour | 20% |
| Green League | Finland | 163 | 39% | Social Democrats | 43% |
| Five Star Movement (M5S) | Italy | 50 | 38% | Green-Left Alliance (AVS) | 28% |
| Brothers of Italy (FdI) | Italy | 98 | 38% | League (Lega) | 38% |
| Green Party | United Kingdom | 183 | 36% | SNP | 38% |
| National Coalition | Finland | 392 | 34% | Finns Party | 32% |
| Liberal | Australia | 121 | 33% | Nationals | 52% |
| Labor | Australia | 198 | 32% | Teal Independents | 37% |
| Conservative | Canada | 135 | 30% | PPC | 48% |
| Independent | Germany | 59 | 29% | AfD | 22% |
| Labour | United Kingdom | 244 | 29% | Liberal Democrats | 27% |
| Libertarian | United States | 187 | 28% | Republican | 26% |
| Independent | Spain | 75 | 27% | Vox | 16% |
| Independent | Austria | 57 | 26% | FPÖ | 35% |
| Kuomintang (KMT) | Taiwan | 1,292 | 24% | Taiwan People's Party (TPP) | 71% |
| Independent | Italy | 87 | 23% | Five Star Movement (M5S) | 22% |
| Restore Britain | United Kingdom | 164 | 20% | Reform UK | 66% |
| Independent | United States | 684 | 18% | Democrat | 32% |
| Left Alliance | Finland | 233 | 16% | Green League | 39% |
| Centre Party | Finland | 133 | 14% | Finns Party | 35% |
| Green Party | New Zealand | 57 | 12% | Labour | 67% |
In 14 of the 39 groups, more people matched a different party than the one they named:
- Green Party (New Zealand): 12% matched it, while 67% matched Labour
- Kuomintang (KMT) (Taiwan): 24% matched it, while 71% matched Taiwan People's Party (TPP)
- Restore Britain (United Kingdom): 20% matched it, while 66% matched Reform UK
- Left Alliance (Finland): 16% matched it, while 39% matched Green League
- Centre Party (Finland): 14% matched it, while 35% matched Finns Party
- Liberal (Australia): 33% matched it, while 52% matched Nationals
- Conservative (Canada): 30% matched it, while 48% matched PPC
- Independent (United States): 18% matched it, while 32% matched Democrat
- Vox (Spain): 41% matched it, while 50% matched PP
- Independent (Austria): 26% matched it, while 35% matched FPÖ
- Labor (Australia): 32% matched it, while 37% matched Teal Independents
- Green League (Finland): 39% matched it, while 43% matched Social Democrats
- Greens (Australia): 39% matched it, while 43% matched Teal Independents
- Green Party (United Kingdom): 36% matched it, while 38% matched SNP
Look at where people go when they leave, and a pattern appears. For each group, the most common alternative is a neighbour: a party on the same side of the spectrum, usually one competing for the same voters. In none of these groups is it a party from the opposite side. People drift to the party next door, which suggests the label they chose is close to right, just not exact.
The most consistent groups in our data are Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Taiwan People's Party (TPP) and Finns Party. The least consistent are Green Party, Centre Party and Left Alliance. One plausible reading is distance. A party whose platform sits well away from its nearest rival is easy for the test to tell apart, so its supporters' answers rarely land in between. A party that shares much of its platform with a neighbour leaves far less room for error, and small differences in how someone answers a handful of questions can tip them across.
The mismatch goes with being easier to sway
Every CoreOpinion test asks key positions twice, once framed sympathetically and once critically, and measures how far your answer moves between the two. That movement is your framing bias score, on a 0 to 100 scale.
People whose answers matched their party scored 19.9 on average. People who landed on a different party scored 24.0. That gap of 4.0 points has a 95% interval of 3.6 to 4.5, so it is very unlikely to be a fluke of the sample.
Because Finland makes up so much of the data, we checked the same comparison without it. The gap does not shrink, it grows: 19.8 against 24.0, a difference of 4.3 points (95% interval 3.8 to 4.8, 16,119 people).
Show the data
| Country | Matched own party | Matched a different party | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan | 19.2 | 23.5 | +4.3 |
| Finland | 22.3 | 23.6 | +1.4 |
| United States | 19.6 | 23.1 | +3.5 |
| Germany | 23.1 | 24.6 | +1.4 |
| Canada | 22.0 | 23.8 | +1.8 |
| Spain | 24.1 | 26.8 | +2.7 |
| Australia | 21.9 | 25.4 | +3.5 |
| United Kingdom | 20.4 | 22.8 | +2.3 |
| Italy | 21.4 | 21.8 | +0.3 |
| New Zealand | 19.4 | 17.8 | -1.6 |
| Austria | 28.9 | 29.4 | +0.5 |
The gap shows up in 10 of the 11 countries large enough to report, but not in New Zealand, where the two groups score about the same. We would rather show that than smooth it over: country samples here are small, and a pattern that holds in most places but not all is a pattern to keep testing, not a law.
We cannot say which way the relationship runs. It could be that people who are more responsive to wording are also less settled in their views, so their answers wander further from the label they chose. It could equally be that people who hold a party label loosely answer each question more on its own terms, and so respond more to how it is phrased. What the data does say is that the two travel together.
What this does and does not tell you
It does not mean people are voting wrongly. Choosing a party because of its leader, its record in government, or its chance of beating a party you dislike more are all perfectly reasonable, and none of them show up in a policy questionnaire. It also does not measure how people vote: the question asks which party someone feels closest to, not how they voted.
What it does suggest is that if you care about policy most, your party label is worth checking now and then. More than half of the people in this data would find the closest match on the issues is a party they did not name.
Want to see where you land? Take the test or pick your country from the menu above.
About these figures
- Based on 17,989 people who took a country test and named a party the test scores. People who chose independent or skipped the question are excluded, as is the general test, where the equivalent question asks about ideologies rather than parties.
- Countries are shown only with at least 100 such respondents, and parties only with at least 50.
- The chance rate assumes a random pick among the parties the test scores in that country.
- This is a self-selected online sample, skewed young, and not weighted to any population. It describes the people who took the test, not a country's electorate. Full detail is on the methodology page.